The juxtaposition of the two images of former Vice-President Mohammad Ali Abtahi - one before his arrest and the other at his hearing- show the absurdity of the trials taking place in Iran.  Abtahi, best known as the “blogging mullah,” is the ebullient cleric interviewed in the Daily Show. In the interview, as Jason Jones says, Abtahi breaks every conceivable stereotype of a cleric we in the west might have.  Watching the same cleric, now looking panic-stricken and withdrawn, make statements about staging a “Velvet Revolution” is heartbreaking. Though as Laura Secor points out in this New Yorker article, the Iran Show, some “Iranians are turning the show trials into a kind of black comedy, by mocking the predictability of their ugliness.”  The most prominent among them is Ebrahim Nabavi, an exiled Iranian satirist.  After Abtahi’s arrest, rightly predicting that Abtahi will be forced to make false confession, Nebavi posted a YouTube video imagining what Abtahi’s confession might look like:

For all the people who do not understand Farsi, here is a concise summary provided by Laura Secor:

Perhaps no one has done more to undermine the effect of forced confessions than Ebrahim Nabavi, an exiled Iranian satirist who has released a parody confession video. Dressed in striped pajamas and wearing bandages, he confesses to meeting with a C.I.A. agent, importing green velvet, and having affairs with Carla Bruni and Angelina Jolie (”She had a very ugly and terrible husband”). He apologizes to the Supreme Leader and to the paramilitaries who “kindly” beat him.

Here is a full English translation of the satire.

Another group highlighting the ridiculousness of the Iranian government is the “Watch Me Confess!” project. They have set up a blog mocking the Iranian government for forcing people to confess lies on national TV.

Hopefully, some one in the Iranian government will realize that these ignominious trials need to stop.

Image taken from the Christian Science Monitor.

Iranian political system is characterized by its duality of power: In the executive branch we have the dual offices of the President and the Supreme Leader, in the legislative branch we have the Parliament and the Council of Guardians, and in the military we have the regular forces and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).  Often time this duality of power leads to an incoherent policy, which makes it hard to portray the Iranian government one way or another.  The contradictory statements made by the Iranian officials reveal that Iranian political system has no single voice.

When the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gave his full backing to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad after the disputed election result, it looked like the dual structures of the Iranian political system were in an agreement.  Though as the weeks have passed, this façade has come down.  Just weeks after the disputed election, there was a disagreement between President Ahmadinejad and the Parliament over Ahmadinejad’s choice of Mr. Mashaii as the Vice President.  In this conflict, the Supreme Leader gave his full support to the Parliament, even directly asking for Mr. Mashaii’s removal.  Ahmadinejad fought back by firing the Minister of Intelligence Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejehei, because he was reporting to the Supreme Leader without first letting Ahmadinejad know.  Ejehai and his deputies had prepared a report for Ayatollah Khamenei, which concluded that Ahmadinejad and his supporters in the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) were wrong in claiming that there was a link between foreign powers and the protests that erupted after the rigged presidential election of June 12.

This might be the reason why Ayatollah Khamenei has not backed Ahmadinejad’s call for the prosecution of the leaders of protests against his recent re-election.  In fact, Ayatollah Khamenei has stated quite clearly that the reformist leaders are not part of a foreign conspiracy to destroy the Islamic Republic:

“I do not accuse the leaders of the recent incidents to be subordinate to the foreigners, like the United States and Britain, since this issue has not been proven for me.”

Ayatollah Khamenei has also hired Sadeq Larijani, who by no means is a reformist, but is still a moderate. Sadeq Larijani has already ordered a probe into allegations by pro-reform cleric Mehdi Karoubi that some opposition protesters were raped in jail.  Larijani has also removed a hard-line Tehran prosecutor, who played a key role in the mass trials of leading reformers arrested over unrest that erupted after the disputed presidential

This is not the first time that there is a conflict between the two leaders of the executive branch.  Under the reformist presidency of Mohammad Khatami, there was tension with the conservative Supreme Leader.  Though this time, there is one major difference: the moderate voice now belongs to the Supreme Leader.  This provides the international community with a glass half-full or half-empty situation.  If you are an optimist then the fact that the moderate voice belongs to Ayatollah Khamenei is good news.  Since the Supreme Leader is regarded as the most powerful position in Iran, this means that he can stop the witch-hunt in Iran.  But the negative side is that Iranian political leadership has moved so much towards the right that now Ayatollah Khamenei (who did nothing to stop the brutal repression of the student protests in 1999 and 2003) is the moderate one.

Photo taken from the Christian Science Monitor.

Looks like the United States will not be alone in pushing for tough sanctions on Iran.  Both French and German leaders have warned Iran that it could face new sanctions if it does not show a willingness to negotiate on its nuclear program.  Speaking after talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Berlin, the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, stated, “If there is no positive answer by September we will have to consider further measures.”  Expressing similar sentiments, the French President, Nicolas Sarkozy, in his annual address to France’s ambassadors, cautioned Iran that if there were no change in their stance, “the question of very substantial strengthening of sanctions will be clearly asked.”  He also criticized the leadership of Iran. “It is the same leaders in Iran who say that the nuclear program is peaceful and that the elections were honest. Who can believe them?,” Sarkozy said.

The United States has given Iran until September to give up nuclear enrichment or face tougher sanctions.

There are plenty of legitimate arguments as to why more sanctions on Iran should not be pushed- they will not work, they hurt ordinary people while strengthening the leaders etc.- but the argument that sanctions should not be pushed because Iran can retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz is not one of them.  The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow passageway that connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean. Significance of this passage comes from the fact that it is the only sea passage in the Persian Gulf.  As such, approximately 88 percent of all oil leaving the Persian Gulf goes via the Strait of Hormuz.  Blocking the strait would create havoc on oil market and the world economy.  But as Dr. Eugene Gholz argues in this Foreign Policy article, the Strait Dope, disrupting the oil flow in the strait is harder than it looks.  In fact, Iran would find it extremely difficult, if not impossible, to close the strait.

For more information on the Strait of Hormuz, click here ( as a side note- I was part of the research team that helped create this website.  Therefore, the strong interest in the strait).

Clinton tried it, but failed miserably.  Similarly Bush gave it a shot and was unable to get any results.  Now it is Obama’s turn.  But this time the U.S. administration is taking a different approach on the Israel- Palestine conflict.  The Guardian reported that the Obama administration’s strategy is to use Iran as a bargaining chip to pressure Israel to stop building Jewish settlements in the West Bank.  The Obama government believes that sanctions planned against Iran’s energy sector if Tehran does not compromise on uranium enrichment by the end of next month will help pre-empt Israeli military action and act as a leverage against the Binyamin Netanyahu’s government.  According to an official close to the negotiation, “The message is: Iran is an existential threat to Israel; settlements are not.”  Moreover, European diplomats believe Israeli President Netanyahu will be better able to keep his coalition together through a freeze on settlements if he can demonstrate western resolve on Iran.  Though the move could end up back firing as the article notes, “Coupling the two huge complex issues could end up complicating them further. Moves against Iran’s oil and gas industry could also end up destroying hard-won multilateral co-ordination, by alienating Russia and China, while failing to inflict much damage on the Iranian regime. Memories of Iraqi sanctions-busting are still fresh.”

As an avid Italian football team fan, it is very hard for me to praise the Brazilian team.  But I will acknowledge this: No other team has the same global fan appeal as Brazil.  Brazilian football players are revered all around the world and Iran is no exception.  Brazilian football star Ronaldo, best known for being the all-time top-scorer in the World Cup competition, is now set to play himself in an Iranian movie.  The movie entitled “Number 9″, after Ronaldo’s jersey number, is about a Palestinian girl who dies before her dream of meeting Ronaldo comes true.  The movie is reportedly based on the true story of a 13-year-old girl, Alneyrab, who wanted to meet the football star when he visited Palestine on a humanitarian mission in 2005.  She, unfortunately, was unable to meet her idol and was later killed in a conflict in the region.

According to the Press TV, the film will be shot in Lebanon and will be released in 80 countries.

For all the football fans reading this blog, here is a video of all fifteen goals scored by Ronaldo in the World Cup competition:

President Ahmadinejad’s cabinet picks are both progressive and hard-line.  His choices upset both the clerics and the West.  On one hand, Ahmadinejad is breaking a taboo by appointing three women ministers to the cabinet.  On the other hand, he is continuing the same anti-West attitude by appointing a minister accused of bombing a Jewish center in Argentina.  Though all his nominations reflect one fact: he chose ministers that he believes would be loyal to him.

Women Cabinet Ministers

The Iranian president's three proposed women ministers, Marzieh Vahid-Dastjerdi (L), Fatemeh Ajorlou (C), and Sussan Keshavarz

It is easy to dismiss Ahmadinejad’s decision to appoint three female ministers to his 21-member cabinet as a ploy to soften his hard-line image, but he still deserves some credit.  His nomination of women ministers is a bold move.  Iran has not had any female ministers since the 1979 revolution.  Even under the reformist presidency of Mohammad Khatami, women were only given the token sub-ministerial posts.  Ahmadinejad’s appointment of Sousan Keshvaraz, Marzieh Vahid Dastjerdi and Fatemeh Ajorlou as his ministers respectively of education, health and welfare, and social security should be applauded.

However, it looks like he will not be getting any praise from the conservative parliamentarians.  Mohammad Taghi Rahbar, a member of the parliament’s judiciary committee, has stated there are “religious doubts” over how women would cope with the positions.  According to the Press TV, he went on to say:

“Many Maraje-e Taqlid [the most senior clerics or grand ayatollahs], such as Ayatolah Safi-Golpayegani and Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi have doubts about choosing female ministers and want Ahmadinejad to reconsider.”

“Although picking female ministers was an innovative idea adopted by Ahmadinejad, there are religious uncertainties surrounding the limits of women’s abilities and their management, which the administration must pay attention to.”

But before we label all Iranian men as misogynists, there are some Iranian parliamentarians like Hossein-Ali Shahriyari, who have said that sex would not play a role in the three women candidates’ chances of winning the parliament’s approval.  As reported in the Press TV, Shahriyari stated, “The parliament’s vote of confidence has nothing to do with whether the [proposed] ministers are men or women. What is important is their executive experience.”  He then went on to praise Vahid-Dastjerdi’s track record and said that she had the necessary criteria to take on the position of health minister.

International Condemnation

Ahmad Vahidi- Ahmadinejad's nominee for defence minister

Ahmadinejad’s nominee for defense minister, Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, has drawn international condemnation.  Vahidi is wanted by Interpol in connection with a bombing of a Jewish cultural center in Argentina in 1994, which left 85 people dead.  He is believed to have been head of the al-Quds Brigades, a covert operation branch of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards - a group whose existence is not acknowledged by Iran.

Parliamentary Dissatisfaction with Other Major Nominations

Several high profile parliamentarians have criticized the President for picking ministers that are relatively young and little known.  The Speaker of Parliament, Ali Larijani, was quoted as saying that a minister must have experience and expertise, as “a ministry is not a place for tryouts.”  Other parliamentarians rebuked the President for nominating people lacking knowledge of their relevant departments, most notably the new Intelligence Minister, Heidar Moslehi.  Ahmad Tavakoli, a conservative MP, disapproving Ahmadinejad’s pick of Moslehi, asked, “How can someone who has not spent a single day of their lives in intelligence work, whose most important work was as the head of a charitable organization, be suitable for the intelligence ministry?”  Similar criticisms have met Masoud Mirkazemi for his nomination for the post of oil minister.  He is currently the commerce minister, but has been accused of having little knowledge of the oil industry.

Another controversial choice is the re-appointment of the Industry Minister, Ali Akbaar Mehrabian.  Mehrabian was recently convicted for fraud.

As noted in the BBC, it looks like that Ahmadinejad “has gone for loyalty over experience in his new cabinet.”  As such, it is no surprise that Ahmadinejad’s nominees are closely related to the Revolutionary Guards:

Both Mr. Mirkazemi and those nominated for the intelligence and interior ministries have a background within the Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard, which is seen as fiercely loyal to the values of the Islamic Republic.  A key figure in the running of the disputed presidential election, Kamran Daneshju, has been given the ministerial post in charge of universities.  Another important security appointment is the move of the Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar to the interior ministry.  He is another man closely connected with the Revolutionary Guards, a further indication of their growing power over internal security.

Brewing Battle Between Ahmadinejad and the Parliament

The Deputy Speakers of Parliament, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, has already stated that four or five of the nominees would be rejected by the Parliament - though he did not specify which.  In 2005, after Mr. Ahmadinejad’s first election victory, the Parliament rejected four of his ministerial nominations.  Ahmadinejad’s chief of staff, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaii, has also been banned from public office for two months (As discussed in earlier posts, Ahmadinejad had named Mashaii as his vice-president soon after his disputed re-election in June, but backed down in the face of opposition from the Supreme Leader).

Though it looks like Ahmadinejad will not go down with out a fight.  As reported in the Wall Street Journal:

Mr. Ahmadinejad took the unusual step of appearing live on state-owned television last Thursday to defend his cabinet choices one by one in a lengthy broadcast. As the screen showed pictures and bullet-points of the credentials of each proposed cabinet member with bullet points listing his or her qualifications, the president reiterated the nominee’s devout religious credentials and commitment to the Islamic Revolution.

In the end, this brewing battle between the President and the Parliament will be decided by how much support the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, is willing to give to Ahmadinejad.  If Ayatollah’s decision to hire Sadeq Larijani to be the head of the judiciary is any indication of the future, it looks like Ahmadinejad may not have the support he desperately needs (The relationship between the Larijani brothers and Ahmadinejad have been discussed in a previous blog).

Photo taken from the Guardian.

Photo taken from the Press TV.

Photo taken from Al- Jazeera.

Iranian former President Ali Akbar Rafsanjani is best remembered for his Friday prayer sermon on July 17th 2009, which gave the reform movement a “powerful boost”.  In his sermon, he criticized the government for losing the trust of many Iranians, and called for the release of the protesters arrested since the election.  As the highest-ranking official within the Iranian clerical regime to oppose the election result, his role in the reform movement was unparalleled.

But as I have discussed in a previous blog, excluding the Friday sermon, Rafsanjani does not have the credentials as a reformist.  In his presidency, he is accused of executing political dissidents, Communists, Kurds, and Bahais.  In his other big sermon at the Tehran University in 1999, he fully supported the government crackdown on students asking for more freedom and praised the state for their use of force.  And it looks like that Rafsanjani is now coming back to his roots. Rafsanjani is now urging Iran’s political factions to follow orders from the supreme leader.  The BBC has quoted that Iranian official news agency Irna as stating that Rafsanjani has called for action to foster unity:

“[Mr Rafsanjani] referred to the observance of the guidelines set by the supreme leader and confronting lawbreakers as a necessity under the present conditions,” Irna reported after a meeting of Iran’s Expediency Council, the country’s top political arbitration body, which he chairs.

Irna said he also called for “sympathy between officials and the public as a necessity for the country’s passage from the current domestic problems and for confronting the problems created by foreigners”.

He also reportedly reiterated a call to politicians and the media to “avoid stirring schisms… and take steps toward the creation of unity”.

Photo taken from the New York Times.

As the month of Ramadan starts, here is President Obama’s message to Muslims all around the world:

Iran allowed inspectors from the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect the nuclear reactor at Arak for the first time in a year and has also granted them greater monitoring of uranium-enrichment facility at Natanz. The accord breaks a months long impasse between Iran and the IAEA. As reported in the Wall Street Journal, while some diplomats hope that Iran’s decision signals a greater willingness by President Ahmadinejad’s government to cooperate, other diplomats are cynical about Iran’s intentions believing that Tehran’s conciliatory line toward the IAEA might be an early step to split the Security Council on the sanctions issue.

The United States, Britain, France and Germany, are expected to urge Russia and China in talks on September 2 to consider a fourth round of U.N. sanctions on Iran. President Obama has repeatedly stated his intention of pushing for more sanctions on Iran if it does not agree to come to the negotiating table by late September. A big factor in the decision to push for more sanctions will be the IAEA’s latest report on Iran’s nuclear program to be released early next week.

The report is already causing controversy. According to Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Israeli officials have accused the IAEA of hiding data on Iran’s drive to obtain nuclear arms. The newspaper alleged that the new evidence submitted to the IAEA in a classified annex written by its inspectors in Iran, indicating Iran’s intention to pursue military applications for its nuclear program, was not incorporated into the agency’s published reports.

For more information on Iranian Nuclear Program, here is the IAEA website on Iran.